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Why Uncertainty Complicates Effective Communication

Uncertainty complicates effective communication.
Scenario planning is a powerful tool for framing problems and creating effective communication.

Not having certain knowledge (uncertainty) makes effective communication difficult. People naturally base their expectations of the future on past experience.

Possibilities are things of potential value. Probability is the chance that possibilities will occur. The intersection of possibilities and probabilities is where opportunities and risks collide.

Scenario planning is an excellent way to enable people to understand the range of possibilities. And scenario planning is a great communication framing technique. Two of the great scenario planners, Ralston and Wilson, get it right when they allude to the difficulties of understanding the uncertainties of the future.


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