How Do You Communicate Effectively When Models and Experience Disagree

Effective communicators acknowledge the differences between models and experience, and point out why (and how) it matters.

Most presenters try to smooth over the conflict when models and experience point in different directions. Don’t. The fastest way to lose credibility with decision makers is to pretend there’s alignment where none exists. The better technique is to identify the disagreement early and frame it as a signal, not a problem.

The Tip: Put the Disagreement on the Table—Early and Explicitly

Briefly Explain the Differences

Start by stating the model’s prediction and the experience in plain language. No qualifiers. No defensiveness. Then explain why the two perspectives diverge.

Models simplify reality to make it computable. Experience captures what is really happening, ideally based on evidence rather than opinion. If the model disagrees with reality, the model is wrong.

First- and second-generation models need verification and validation. The goal for most models is to get better over time. Early versions of a model can still provide valuable insights. Your job is to show where the model holds up and where it breaks down.

Briefly Explain the Consequences

The second step is to compare and contrast the consequences. What happens if we follow the model? What happens if we follow experience? Decision makers don’t need a winner; they need to understand the trade-offs.

Recommend a Path Forward

Finally, recommend a path. Some options include adjusting assumptions, testing a scenario, or running a pilot. Remember, if a simple model provides the insights needed for the decision, there is nothing wrong with calling it “good enough.”

Put the Disagreement on the Table

Models and experience often disagree. Effective communicators acknowledge the differences and point out why (and how) it matters. Pointing out insights gained from differences builds trust and sharpens decisions.

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JD Solomon is the author of Communicating Reliability, Risk & Resiliency to Decision Makers: How to Get Your Boss’s Boss to Understand and Facilitating with FINESSE: A Guide to Successful Business Solutions.